Economic expert Oleksandr Bondarenko assesses the potential challenges facing Ukraine through the end of 2026, including energy security, the national currency exchange rate, the state of public finances, and the logistics crisis.
Ahead of the 2026 heating season, Ukraine may face serious challenges in the energy sector, including disruptions to heating and electricity supplies in major cities. In his analysis, economic expert Oleksandr Bondarenko predicts that the winter could be difficult for residents of Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kharkiv due to extensive damage to energy infrastructure and insufficient progress in its restoration. At the same time, according to the expert, public finances are expected to remain stable, while international assistance will ensure that budget expenditures, including military and social spending, are covered.
The expert also predicts a continuation of the planned devaluation of the hryvnia against the US dollar and euro. The National Bank and the Ministry of Finance have an interest in this process because it increases hryvnia-denominated revenues from international assistance, which is provided in foreign currency. According to the forecast, by the end of 2026, the euro could reach UAH 52.5, while the US dollar could reach UAH 45.5. Further depreciation of the hryvnia by 4–5% annually is expected next year. These developments, combined with year-on-year increases of 15–18% in prices for industrial goods and construction services, could result in real inflation of 16–18%.
Energy security: winter preparedness in question
A significant portion of Ukraine's heating generation capacity, particularly in Kyiv (CHP-5, CHP-4, and CHP-6), has suffered critical damage. Repair work is failing to keep pace with the scale of the destruction, while there is also a shortage of qualified energy-sector specialists. According to the forecast, up to 2,500 buildings in Kyiv could be left without a stable source of heat. The expert criticizes the city's management for the slow pace of infrastructure restoration and the insufficient deployment of distributed generation sources, such as cogeneration units. Attacks on energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia are expected to continue from October–November onward.
Cities facing intense attacks, such as Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kharkiv, require a decentralized approach to ensuring heating and electricity supplies. However, according to the expert, energy resilience and recovery plans are being implemented too slowly. For example, in Kyiv, the energy restoration plan has been completed to only 10% of the level required for the 2025–2026 winter season. International aid often remains in warehouses without being properly installed. Kharkiv is estimated to be 50% prepared for winter, while Zaporizhzhia is at a similar level, although the situation there is further complicated by its proximity to the front line. Against the backdrop of the deteriorating military situation and pressure from russian forces, the three cities are expected to remain under constant attack.
Positive developments in the energy sector include the projected installation of approximately 600 MW of wind power and 1.2 GW of solar capacity by the end of 2026. These new renewable energy facilities, being built by private companies with international investment from institutions such as the EBRD and IFC, are distributed across different regions of Ukraine, making them less vulnerable to attacks. In addition, 500 MWh of battery energy storage capacity is planned to be installed by the end of 2026. This will help balance electricity supply and demand and increase the resilience of the energy system.
Logistics crisis and Its impact on the economy
Ukraine's port logistics sector is suffering significant losses due to enemy attacks, putting the country's export capabilities at risk. Major Black Sea ports, including Odesa and Chornomorsk, have sustained substantial damage. International shipping lines, including MSC and Maersk, have suspended or halted their services to Ukraine via the Black Sea at least until the end of 2026. This makes the export of Ukrainian products, such as wheat and peas, through seaports impossible or extremely difficult.
The decline in export capacity is having a significant impact on Ukraine's GDP. GDP growth forecasts for 2026, which previously stood at around 2.5%, are likely to be revised down to 1.2–1.3%. This growth may be purely nominal, driven by inflation, and may not result in any tangible improvement in citizens' well-being. The expert also highlights the destruction of logistics terminals, including a warehouse of more than 100,000 square meters near Kyiv, which resulted in losses of hundreds of millions of dollars for private businesses. These factors mean that the Ukrainian economy is effectively in a state of recession.
It is forecast that by the end of 2026, Ukraine's Black Sea fleet will not be operational, and all agricultural and other commodity exports will be transported overland by rail and road to European Union countries. This will significantly reduce Ukraine's GDP growth potential and lead to lower tax revenues, which in turn will affect the funding of social benefits, teachers' salaries, and, most importantly, the armed forces.
Conclusion: financial resilience and planning
Amid economic uncertainty, hryvnia devaluation, and rising prices, the expert advises citizens to take steps to protect their finances. Pensions are not expected to increase significantly due to the lack of sources of economic growth. Particular attention should be paid to preserving existing funds, developing Plan B and Plan C scenarios, and improving financial literacy. It is important to be able to recognize financial fraudsters, particularly online, in order to protect one's assets. The expert expresses hope for positive trends in the future but notes that the current situation requires careful planning and preparation for difficult economic conditions.